The price difference of steel brings resources south and distributary
The phenomenon of "North timber south" refers to the fact that after the northern region has entered the winter, the demand for the local steel demand is almost stagnant, the price difference between the steel prices in the South market and the northern market is bigger. The steel mills and traders in the north region (mainly northeast) adopt the low price policy to transport the steel resources to the south. The phenomenon of diverting.
This phenomenon is particularly evident in the field of building steel. The approximate time of the occurrence is from September to February of next year, and the starting time is different each year. In general, in this period, the difference price of building materials in the north and South markets is generally maintained at 300 yuan / ton. After the entry of the steel resources in the northern part of the South market, there is still a certain profit space to remove the cost of loading and unloading, freight, artificial cost and so on.
"The spread of prices affects the flow of resources, which is the most direct factor affecting the north of the timber industry." In the past two years, the price of building materials in Guangzhou market is higher than that in Shanghai and Shenyang, while the average price of building materials in Shanghai market is slightly higher than that in Shenyang. The data show that in recent years, in recent years from early September to the end of February, the price difference between the South and the north is particularly obvious. Compared to the Shenyang market and the Guangzhou market, the winter price difference between the Shenyang and the Guangzhou is about 400 yuan / ton, the high line price difference is between 350-400 yuan / ton, and the time is basically consistent with the south of the northern resources. By the beginning of March to the end of August, the average price difference between the north and south areas is reduced (between 100-200 yuan / ton). This is the peak demand season in the north, and most of the steel plant resources are complementary to the local, and the demand for the south is not obvious. It is worth mentioning that after entering October, the price of building materials in Shenyang market began to fall gradually, and the price gap between Shenyang market and Shanghai and Guangzhou market was further widened. As of October 23rd, the price of 20mm three grade screw steel in Shanghai and Guangzhou markets was 3430 yuan / ton and 3760 yuan per ton respectively, which was 120 yuan / ton, 450 yuan / ton higher than the Shenyang market.
Resource flow of "North material south"
From the south of North China in the last two years, the East China Yangtze River Delta and the Southern China Pearl River Delta are undoubtedly the main areas of the "North timber south" in winter. With the advent of the long winter, the demand for steel products in the northeast area was deserted, prompting most steel mills to go to South market one after another. In view of the diversion of resources in the Northeast in the south, the main inflow areas are Shanghai and Guangzhou, and some resources are diverted to Shenzhen, Xiamen, Ningbo and Quanzhou. According to the insiders, in the winter of 2011, 1 million 280 thousand tons of steel resources in the South Building of the Northeast steel plant were accumulated, and in the winter of 2012, the total amount of the resources reached about 1 million 870 thousand tons, up 46% from the previous year. Industry insiders predict that in 2013, Northeast China Steel Works south of the building steel plan to put about 2.71 million tons, compared with last year will be significantly increased. "2 million 710 thousand tons, which is equivalent to the amount of steel used by a second tier city in one year." At the same time, it is clear that the "North material south" alleviates the supply pressure of the steel market in the north, but also increases the supply pressure of South market, which directly affects the rebound of local steel prices.
The "war between the north and the South" in 2012
Last year, around the "North material south", the atmosphere between the north and South steel mills appeared to be full of gunpowder. It is reported that in the winter of 2012, the Northeast steel plant introduced a series of price promotion policies to increase the strength of the steel in the south, while the South steel plant also reduced the factory price at the same time. At the same time, in order to complete the planned delivery of "North timber south", the Northeast steel plant has also generally introduced preferential orders for cash orders, order quantity to a certain extent to give "profit", as well as acceptance of interest rates on order preferential policies.
South steel plants are also not weak. After the Northeast Steel Works launched the preferential policy of ordering, the construction steel plants in East and South China also responded accordingly. Industry insiders pointed out that the positive performance of the southern steel plant has brought pressure on the uplink of the local spot market prices, but also reduced the price difference between the north and the south, which will help prevent the north steel from south, and then form new pressure on the north steel plant.
"Golden nine silver ten" was lost in people's expectation, and winter is coming. Then, what will the impact of "North material south" on the market in 2013? Insiders pointed out that "northern resources only rely on low prices, and there is a market in the south. If the price of South market is low, then the low price advantage of the North timber will no longer be embarrassed. Especially in the current South steel trade merchants, high capacity, capital tight background, and "North material" has no big brand advantages, relying on cost, freight, policy, brand, the North resources to the south is not necessarily fragrant. "North material south" will become an uncertain factor affecting the steel market, and the domestic steel market will be tested again.